What's in store for '07?

Its the end of the year; we're hip deep in a Happy Hanukkah, a few short days away from a Merry Christmas, and of course, a brand New Year (and don't think I forgot about you Kwanza - I see you over there). It is that magic time of year where we talk about all the things that happened this year or all the things that will happen next year. I don't have a crystal ball, but I did fire up the visualizer on iTunes for a solid half hour and have come up with my own list for what's in store for 2007.

Technologically speaking, much has happened in the last year - in fact, I'd say it was one of the more interesting year's we've had for the Internet since it made that terribly exciting whooshing sound as all the money (and hopes and dreams of many people) leaked out of it. But thats history, and this isn't one of the recap of how clever I was last year posts (I didn't even know you a year ago for pity's sake). No, no, instead this'll be my obligatory collection of my predictions for next year. My predictions (guesses? fervent hopes?) are going to stick primarily to the whole 'online video' realm, but will bleed over into other genres that pique my interest.

Television, meet the Internet
Experienced broadcaster, ISO fun, romantic (& profitable) romp with stabile online content business model...

I swear I think I saw this ad in the Missed Connections section of Craigslist during the year - and I think its going to be the topic of a lot of conversations in 2007. Media distributors (aka traditional broadcasters) are going to rally step up their use of the Internet to share their goods. They won't be overly successful at this as inertia can be a bitch and its incredibly hard to change gears from TV model to the web model (part of the problem there is that there isn't ONE web model, there are about as many as people can dream up). Generally we seem to have agreed collectively that ad supported flash video is popular for the prime time line up, so expect more of that next year, but hopefully there are a few more ideas in the wings that will get tried in the next year.

Even more than transferring my viewing habits from my viewing habits from my 34 inch TV to my 15 in laptop though, I'd really like to see IPTV services take off. I have this dream of a company that has both a catalogue of content AND Internet services (I'm looking at you Time Warner) will add P2P functionality to their set top box so that IP based video comes to the TV - if this isn't being worked on already, would somebody get cracking PLEASE!

Can I See Your Digital ID, Please?
Because my Flickr, Amazon, Ebay, Linked In, & blogs all just want to get along...

Digital Identity isn't a new concept, but it hasn't been a conversation the average Internet user would get involved in; that already is changing and it will continue - and I use Digital ID, but some people call it Online Identity, too. Super smart people like danah boyd (lowercase on purpose) and Dick Hardt are doing a lot to bring the concepts of online identity to the masses.

I am hoping that a company comes up with a way to link up all of the many digital ID's I have online already (all the various forums, news sites, bank accounts, cell phone accounts, and online shopping) into a centralized place. And I don't want this just to manage my digital self. I want this same repository to be the place where I can set the info I want people to be able to find me with online, that way folks can quickly tell the difference between me and the Andy Beach who works for Attik and the Andy Beach who's available for weddings and bar mitzvahs. I already have several ways to be found online (my Linked In account, this site, amongst others) but more and more, people will want a place online to define the information about themselves that they find important. Now that we have created dozens of online identities, we need a way to organize and manage them.

Can I Get That To Go?
Faster speeds, cheaper plans, and better handsets will mean we can take the Internet with us...

Yes, we have had some sort of weird Internet like thing on our cell phones for sometime in the US (though few use it or realize its there) but in 2007 we may actually start using it (as long as the price is right). As people begin upgrading to 3G phones and suddenly have much faster speeds on their phones, it will only seem obvious to out that to good use. But its unlikely to be just straight up web surfing that mobile users want. Mobile apps that use the data connection to push data at us (weather, traffic, emails from that special someone) will be the thing people most want. Video will certainly play a part, though I think its more likely people want to immediately upload funny (or infamous) video clips they just took with their cell phone to some sort of accommodating service.

But like I said at the opening, carriers have to wake up and smell the reality of price plans As much as I want to live an always on life watching tv on my phone while instant message with my buddies from the middle of a park, I'm simply not going to pay and extra $40 (or more) for the privilege (and I'm not kidding Cingular). T-mobile actually has this one right - there GPRS plan is a mere $5.99 a month.

So bring on the faster, cheaper service - I've got some surfin' to do!

Browsers? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Browsers!
Office apps are going online, online apps are coming to the desktop...

Cell phones aren't the only place we're going to ditch the browser but keep the web.

The web browser will lose a little of the limelight as developers begin packaging their Internet access into special applications developed with tools like Apollo from Adobe. For example, instead of having all your photos on your laptop and some are published to Flickr, maybe they will make a special desktop app so view and sync your photos locally while keeping it synced to the online account. That example is already happening, I just think it has a chance to take off bigger in 2007.

Applications will simply stop relying on the browser as much to connect the user to some enhanced experience and do the job themselves. This is not to say the need for the browser will disappear - in fact, office applications are making the foray into the web world. Google has a suite of online apps that make it possible to create, edit, and distribute documents and spreadsheets. But there are still some limits to what's possible in the browser environment for these apps - even more than writing word docs in the browser, let me collaborate with a colleague on a script through my desktop word processor, all while keeping the file stored online. The cool factor for me is not the browser, its the collaboration thats possible and the remote storage.

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Well, that's my list in a nutshell - if you agree with me, let me know with a comment. If you disagree, let me know with a snarky comment. If you REALLY disagree, meet me in the school yard after recess and we'll settle this like children....

Have a happy holiday and see you all next year!